Dispute over carbon tax jobs losses
Recent research into effects of a carbon tax on the mining industry commissioned by The Australian Coal Association (ACA) has come under fire from Citi Group analysts who dispute the findings.
The disputed research, conducted by consultancy group ACIL Tasman, found that up to 4000 jobs would be lost as a result of the implementation of a carbon tax over four years as well as possibly causing mine closures.
"Conservative estimates of employment losses from applying emissions pricing to potential new coalmining developments would be elimination of 25-37 per cent of potential new jobs," the ACIL report found.
However, Citi has responded with research findings that show that high yield mines are likely to be unaffected by a carbon tax, and that job losses would be minimal.
"Our analysis suggests that a carbon price is unlikely to force significant mine closures," Citi analysts Elaine Prior and Felipe Faria told The Australian.
"Hypothetically, a carbon price might slightly bring forward closure of a highly 'gassy' and/or low-margin mine, but we would need to see mine-specific data and run the numbers to be convinced."
The report finds that a tax of $50 per tonne of carbon would be unlikely to cause any severe employment or operational costs on the industry.
The report comes after The Australia Institute published its How many jobs is 23,510, really? report that concluded that the estimated 23,510 jobs lost over a period of 10 years is “in a statistical sense close to invisible with respect to employment and unemployment stocks, and trivial with respect to aggregate flows in the labour market.”
The dispute has culminated with the ACA has launching a large-scale advertising campaign against the proposed carbon tax.