New figures show the value of civil construction is dropping, and could be on the way to a sector-wide collapse.

In its latest report, BIS Shrapnel predicts the dollar value of work in the civil construction sector will drop by 13 per cent in 2014/15, and by a total of 40 per cent from its 2012/13 peak.

This would see a fall from the 2012/13 level of $130.3 billion to decade-lows of $79.6 billion by 2017/18.

The study says the resources sector is leading the decline in engineering construction work, as major projects wind up amid weak prices for oil, coal, iron ore and similar products.

BIS says the low commodity prices also impact investment plans, slow the construction of new mines and downstream processing facilities and harm related industries such as transport and logistics.

But BIS senior economist Rubin Jeya says there has been a big fall in overall civil construction work too.

“In 2013/14, we witnessed just the ‘first leg’ of a multi-year decline in totalengineering construction activity – the first since 2000/01,” Jeya told reporters.

“We expect four more years of weakening conditions before any reprieve.”

The analysts did spot a few areas of opportunity though, with sectors such as roads, telecommunications, passenger and freight rail, freight and subdivision infrastructure offering some pretty strong growth prospects, the report said.

In geographical terms, opportunities are expected to shift away from resource-rich areas and towards metro projects such as WestConnex, the Badgerys Creek Airport, the North West Rail link and Western Sydney Light Rail.

“While there is a temptation to think so, it’s not all bad news out there and the smarter companies in this space are tracking the opportunities project by project, subsector by subsector,” BIS researcher Adrian Hart said.

“Even within sectors, there are substantial differences in the outlook by asset type. For example, falling mining investment is impacting on related railways construction through the next few years, but passenger rail and freight works are expected to rise strongly given the outlook for key projects and the need to re-invest.”

The BIS Shrapnel Engineering Construction in Australia 2014/15 – 2028/2029 report is accessible here, for a fee of $16,280.